Why nerds hate marketing (and why NY Resolutions are bubbles) | #9

I'm not a grinch, I promise... but I might be a nerd.

In this 9th issue of The Pole:

• being a Grinch about New Year's Resolutions

• New Years Resolutions are a(n economic) bubble

• A non-bubbly workout routine

• Why nerds hate marketing

Being a Grinch about New Year's Resolutions

We're well into February at this point, but let's rewind to January 1st.

It's New Years Day. People made resolutions and signed up for gym memberships.

A few weeks in, the first derailments happen. Sickness, vacation, divorce, work, kids, whatever.

At the same time, the honeymoon phase is ending. For a lot of folks, it has flipped from something they wanted to something they make themselves do.

As the weeks pass on, the reasons they started get quieter. The reasons they want to quit get louder.

Before they know it, they've abandoned the gym. They're back to their pre-resolution routine.

On one hand, the effort counts for something. It's hope and optimism. It's the spirit of new beginnings. How could you shake your finger against folks trying to change their lives for the better?

On the other, I don't like the system. I don't shake my finger against the people involved, but I do against the institution.

Why? For the same reason I don't like slimy copywriting and marketing.

What the HECK do those have to do with each other? I'll explain.

New Years Resolutions are a bubble

I'll start with an economic lens, since that lens makes the most sense to me. Imagine two types of transactions: wants and jobs.

A want is something you have intrinsic motivation to do. The amount I have to pay you to do it is $0. You might even pay me to do it.

A job is something you have extrinsic motivation to do. You don't want to do it, but you do want the result of it getting done. You want an outcome, like a payment.

Normally, for most people, going to the gym is a job.

But around New Year's, there's optimism in the air. Maybe all your friends are getting ahead in life. Suddenly, the idea of putting on muscle starts flooding your brain with dopamine. There's a rising tide of motivation that's upgrading working out from a job to a want.

If going to the gym is a transaction, then you're getting priced into the market of working out.

For a time, at least. Then the mood shifts, reality sets in, and you blow it off. And so does almost everyone else.

Which means, if you think about it, New Years Resolutions are a bubble!

A non-bubbly workout routine

Anyway, I'm not the type to bring problems to the table without solutions. What does a sustainable change look like here?

Keeping up the economic theme, there are two factors that affect price: supply and demand. (Warning: I am glossing over nuance. Wee! Also: not an expert! Like, at all!)

In a healthy economy, the standard of living goes down over time because supply goes up over time.

Businesses innovate, enabling them to do more with less. That creates larger profits for them. Competitors copy the innovative business's strategy and then undercut them. The price of the product settles to a new, lower point. Us consumers can then buy the same things with less resources and effort.

In an unhealthy economy, demand is chaotic. Fads reign supreme. Everyone speculates on the price of everything. Nobody does their own research. The markets have moods. You're much more likely to make a profit by bootlicking, manipulating emotions, and being at the right place at the right time.

Innovation is risky. Why increase your profit via a genuine contribution to society when you can ride the waves of the market? Find a part of town without a gym and open one in time for New Years Day. Take advantage of the next craze, secure the bag, and get the heck out.

Back to making working out more sustainable: you have two levers to pull. They are

• supply (the tediousness of the gym), and

• demand (the desire to go)

Trying to manipulate demand is unreliable and doesn't seem to help anyone in the long run.

But adjusting supply helps people in a meaningful, reliable, measurable way.

This could mean

• picking a closer gym

• adopting an easier routine

• going during different times of the day

• etc

To bring it back to the headline of this issue, my theory is that nerds hate marketing because it's demand-based. Let me explain.

Why nerds hate marketing

It's worth adding some nuance here. Who are nerds and what is marketing?

Nerds I take to mean people like.. programmers and artists. By marketing I’m referring to the idea of selling at scale. Advertising, audiences, etc.

I think “nerds hate marketing” is more useful when phrased as:

Smart, curious people hate bad marketing.

I think what nerds actually hate is bad marketing, but they’re more likely to write off any marketing as bad marketing.

Which leads me to... what is good and bad marketing?

To me, bad marketing is a consequence of what we covered in the past 3 sections.

You can increase profit by inducing demand or increasing supply.

Companies that make a profit purely by inducing demand tend towards zero sum games. Their existences don't necessarily make anyone's lives better. Their marketing tactics include:

• facilitating FOMO

• aggravating insecurities

• faking urgency

• outright lying

• and other gimmicks

They take advantage of an emotion to move money from the market's pocket to theirs. Think: phone scammers that take advantage of the elderly.

Contrast that with companies that increase profits by increasing supply. For example, making the same product with less effort. Or making a better product with the same effort. They're not trying to trick you into buying it. They do better and then you buy it because they told you how it's better.

When all businesses do that, everything gets better. Everyone's standard of living goes up. It's positive sum.

Nerds hate marketing seems to be an allergy to zero sum companies and products. An ick for businesses that mooch off the market's lapses in judgement.

Maybe a good litmus test for these bad companies and products is:

Does not being in healthy, secure state of mind make me more likely to buy this?

And maybe a good litmus test for bad, zero sum marketing is:

Is this ad trying to either

1. create a nonexistent problem or

2. exaggerate an existing problem

and position itself as the solution?

If the answer is neither, I think it's good (i.e. positive sum) marketing.

My brain is chewing on other gray areas, such as:

• What about pointing out problems you didn't know you had? If you didn't know you had the problem, is it really that big of a problem?

• How do you know you're positioning the problem to be exactly how bad it actually is, and not exaggerating?

But I don't have well formed thoughts on those right now. For now, I'll say: follow your feelings. You know deep down if what you’re offering is useful.

Until next time!